Mls · resolved market
Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331de585086c346a67cd927fb2797a5de42b7f2fe53a5793ffd01807ef931694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orlando City SCof New York Red Bulls, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 50c | 468.18$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed New York Red Bulls | 57c | 410.86$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed New York Red Bulls | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked New York Red Bulls | 46c | 168$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Orlando City SC | 43c | 153$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed New York Red Bulls | 22c | 147.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Orlando City SC | 56c | 146.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Orlando City SC | 78c | 134$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Orlando City SC | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Orlando City SC | 46c | 119.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Red Bulls | 54c | 119$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked New York Red Bulls | 24c | 118.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Orlando City SC | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed New York Red Bulls | 46c | 109.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed New York Red Bulls | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Orlando City SC | 50c | 83.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Orlando City SC | 45c | 61.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Orlando City SC | 78c | 52.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Orlando City SC | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Orlando City SC | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed New York Red Bulls | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Orlando City SC | 43c | 26.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Orlando City SC | 74c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Orlando City SC | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Orlando City SC | 50c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed New York Red Bulls | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Orlando City SC | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Orlando City SC | 74c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Orlando City SC | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Orlando City SC | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.