Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f18531371799bde66b392a9a7380898741c6b27cfdc2a65b955fd7fd817469e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 44c | 6,375$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 4,570$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.15 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 2,385$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.88 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,893$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.9 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Over | 59c | 1,443$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.21 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 66c | 1,164$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.09 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 11c | 1,083$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…f598backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 945.92$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 829.51$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.33 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 483$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 61c | 481.29$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 37c | 413.41$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 380.36$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 36c | 354$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 37c | 340$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 44c | 320.45$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 48c | 319$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 241.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 239.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 53c | 215.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 196.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 38c | 164$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…516abacked Over | 46c | 143.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 139.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 46c | 115.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Under | 54c | 110.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 47c | 108.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Under | 47c | 107.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 96.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 47c | 89.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 54c | 87.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 47c | 86.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 47c | 85.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 53c | 76.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 46c | 71.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 61c | 65.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 58c | 62.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 59.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 54.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 67c | 53.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 63c | 53.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 47c | 51.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 66c | 50.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 66c | 46.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 66c | 41.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 51c | 40.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 50c | 31.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 42c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 66c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 26.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 63c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Over | 54c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.