Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7d96fe60101ca8acd9cd67bcef0c191bcc69cf3ca5ef0c9f7b60c6b7ffdcf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 42c | 11,905$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.99 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 57c | 6,402$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.94 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 42c | 5,219$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,008.35 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 3,164$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.72 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 2,553$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.84 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 2,195$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.08 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 2c | 2,054$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 18c | 1,017$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 783.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 59c | 375$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 58c | 360.02$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 305.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 298.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 197.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…4322backed Under | 35c | 149.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 17c | 139$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Over | 69c | 134.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 64c | 132$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 38c | 130.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 36c | 105.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 18c | 77.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 18c | 68.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 58c | 65.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 64.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 58c | 63.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 18c | 61.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 43.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 43.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Under | 62c | 30.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 64c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 80c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.