Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7724abe6c9b44fa1b974ca8b545c3835559ea0c731aa33c16546af36deb04915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- InterActive Philippinesof InterActive Philippines, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeea8…0412backed InterActive Philippines | 64c | 463.19$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.38 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Carstensz | 50c | 441.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.84 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed InterActive Philippines | 73c | 317.93$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked InterActive Philippines | 62c | 304.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Carstensz | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…df94backed Carstensz | 60c | 130.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Carstensz | 14c | 125.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 36c | 124.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Carstensz | 38c | 76.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked Carstensz | 45c | 72.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed InterActive Philippines | 72c | 61.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked InterActive Philippines | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed InterActive Philippines | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed InterActive Philippines | 73c | 56.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed InterActive Philippines | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Carstensz | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed Carstensz | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Carstensz | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 907 | 56.1%509 W · 398 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked InterActive Philippines | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Carstensz | 34c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Carstensz | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked InterActive Philippines | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed InterActive Philippines | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…8e37backed InterActive Philippines | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed InterActive Philippines | 75c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.