Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896fe15d34712f4fa5e9c102bd1f690635f89c73a6eb5937d1b6d8e4690104a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof InterActive Philippines, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked InterActive Philippines | 32c | 462.32$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Carstensz | 50c | 343.49$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.64 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Carstensz | 46c | 290.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked InterActive Philippines | 60c | 284.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed InterActive Philippines | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked InterActive Philippines | 50c | 170.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Carstensz | 51c | 158.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked InterActive Philippines | 51c | 122.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked InterActive Philippines | 37c | 109.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed InterActive Philippines | 54c | 91.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed InterActive Philippines | 50c | 68.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Carstensz | 44c | 61.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed InterActive Philippines | 48c | 59.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed InterActive Philippines | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed InterActive Philippines | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed InterActive Philippines | 54c | 53.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Carstensz | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Carstensz | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Carstensz | 49c | 34.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Carstensz | 56c | 29.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed InterActive Philippines | 49c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Carstensz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerInterActive Philippines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.