Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7749327205eecda8178bb75c5b8d03e34e5893242cfd19b57481f8a49601c39c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Andreeva, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Fernandez | 46c | 5,472$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.74 | 362 | 47%170 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Andreeva | 54c | 3,479$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.69 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Andreeva | 55c | 1,700$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Andreeva | 58c | 1,371$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fernandez | 41c | 876.88$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.36 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fernandez | 44c | 583.04$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.5 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Andreeva | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e97…6561backed Andreeva | 57c | 497.53$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.59 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb086…fee9backed Andreeva | 57c | 344.82$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Fernandez | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Andreeva | 54c | 143.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 990 | 49.4%489 W · 501 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b76…9418backed Andreeva | 57c | 70.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Fernandez | 42c | 60.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Andreeva | 54c | 58.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Fernandez | 43c | 58.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…86bdbacked Andreeva | 58c | 56.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…2478backed Andreeva | 57c | 56.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…61e0backed Andreeva | 57c | 52.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Fernandez | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,235 | 44.9%554 W · 681 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Andreeva | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…32a2backed Andreeva | 57c | 43.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Andreeva | 56c | 41.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Fernandez | 44c | 41.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Andreeva | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd156…dc75backed Andreeva | 57c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Andreeva | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…e31bbacked Andreeva | 57c | 33.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Fernandez | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 677 | 45.6%309 W · 368 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Andreeva | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 423 | 45.9%194 W · 229 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)this page
- Mirra Andreeva vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah FernandezLeylah Fernandez won
- Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs FernandezFernandez won
- Set 2 Winner: Andreeva vs FernandezFernandez won
- Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5)Fernandez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.