World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7757f816ef682b3929797e8fbed311ff6797bcbdbef066c435b1cc7cd2015fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 209.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 202.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 157.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 151.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 97.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 89.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 40c | 75.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28e…e6f0backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 51.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 47.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 60c | 47.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 35.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 32.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 62c | 27.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…ab41backed No | 62c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 62c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.