MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775e17bb47d81bab2e55f764d5941ccee0c0e615da82acd03b47fdf174a71b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 52c | 13,055$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,788.64 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 12,500$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500.07 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 10,062$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,232.3 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 8,489$4,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,414.69 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 6,802$3,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.64 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 47c | 2,449$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.2 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 1,740$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.97 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 1,695$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.15 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,481$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 1,088$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 965.65$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 869.02$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.86 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 549.44$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 505.2$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 498.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 57c | 425.2$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 34c | 365.96$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.07 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 283.07$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 275.74$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 238.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 53c | 145.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 125.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d25…0867backed Over | 49c | 124.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 105.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 88.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 54c | 71.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Over | 42c | 67.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 66.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 48.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 45.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 48c | 41.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Over | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 48c | 31.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 56c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 63c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.