Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Yue Yuan vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77615a3bb3f1213d06e3693c50ce4e006d19146b764a933da75eb7ebd1ca335b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Yuan, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yuan | 3c | 27,264$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.68 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yuan | 2c | 8,157$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yuan | 1c | 4,692$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Yuan | 3c | 4,100$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yuan | 9c | 3,849$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.23 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yuan | 6c | 1,862$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yuan | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yuan | 7c | 1,102$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yuan | 2c | 979.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yuan | 4c | 881.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Yuan | 2c | 861$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuan | 5c | 805.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yuan | 10c | 627$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Yuan | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,404 | 28.7%403 W · 1,001 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yuan | 3c | 475.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yuan | 5c | 445.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yuan | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yuan | 9c | 305.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Yuan | 8c | 298.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Yuan | 10c | 257.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 975 | 40.1%391 W · 584 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yuan | 9c | 255.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Yuan | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yuan | 5c | 237$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yuan | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yuan | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Yuan | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yuan | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Yue Yuan vs Iga Swiatekthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Yuan vs SwiatekSwiatek won
- Yuan vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.