Fifa International · resolved market
Will Slovakia vs. Germany end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a65c66747467367a3c68ea9c357010781580884cbe27b7d9bc84c4b209b0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 3,808$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.75 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 849.56$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 419.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 72c | 324.34$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 21c | 239.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 238.1$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 25c | 234.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 36c | 168.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 86.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5128…64b2backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 39c | 38.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Slovakia vs. Germany end in a draw?this page
- Will Germany win on 2025-09-04?No won
- Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.