MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a7e97436e372252bcd40cda679e39974eefcf4922af4357120ef35c28f9c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 2c | 1,607$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 44c | 1,170$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed No | 58c | 820.44$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.72 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 46c | 313.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed No | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed No | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked No | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 7c | 151.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed No | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed No | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed No | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 44c | 32.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 52c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked No | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.