Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Jeremy Beale vs Kosuke Ogura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77cd0b75e87487925f86a75963e731bfa98e2d487891d1640a38cedf84a18f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jeremy Bealeof Jeremy Beale, Kosuke Ogura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Jeremy Beale | 73c | 2,083$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.6 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Jeremy Beale | 58c | 861.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.63 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 32c | 487.21$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 40c | 436.91$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.77 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kosuke Ogura | 36c | 411.8$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kosuke Ogura | 22c | 231.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kosuke Ogura | 22c | 231.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Kosuke Ogura | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Kosuke Ogura | 22c | 190.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa563…f55fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 34c | 143.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Kosuke Ogura | 19c | 140.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Kosuke Ogura | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Kosuke Ogura | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Kosuke Ogura | 24c | 125.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Kosuke Ogura | 25c | 106.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Kosuke Ogura | 25c | 103.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Kosuke Ogura | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 37c | 58.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Kosuke Ogura | 20c | 57.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Kosuke Ogura | 26c | 55.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Kosuke Ogura | 37c | 53.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Jeremy Beale | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kosuke Ogura | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 26c | 44.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Kosuke Ogura | 51c | 33.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Jeremy Beale | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8378…0090backed Kosuke Ogura | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Jeremy Beale | 49c | 27.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…24b9backed Jeremy Beale | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 132 | 76.5%101 W · 31 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.