Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d00ef748d76264d9ca065bf7424c1c65753e8ecf9ffa132fc7c90f11bac24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes | 1c | 4,253$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 858.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 4c | 650$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 68c | 477.37$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 275.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…09d1backed Yes | 32c | 269.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 262.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 198.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 196.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 178.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 171.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 137.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 26c | 115.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 113.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 29c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 31c | 105.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…16dfbacked Yes | 12c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 95.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 92.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…9c80backed No | 66c | 89.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 29c | 86.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 85.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 84.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 69c | 84.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 19c | 82.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 81.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 77.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 34c | 72.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…e423backed Yes | 25c | 62.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 65c | 60.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 59.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 34c | 51.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…225ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 37c | 40.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…44bbbacked No | 66c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844c…c4f4backed No | 66c | 38.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 63c | 34.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 30.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 29.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 69c | 26.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 72c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 72c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.