Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c699ea49245ebb306d789bb3ee0fcc7e60d7ce1af66c3439e0118f5d280ec43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 0c | 10,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 0c | 3,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed No | 0c | 3,264$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 2,159$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 79c | 1,178$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,039$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 998.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 9c | 979.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 78c | 516.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 55c | 488.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…1ee4backed No | 34c | 428.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 36c | 402.66$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…2097backed No | 33c | 357.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 23c | 299.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 48c | 290.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 28c | 279.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 254.92$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 210.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 60c | 210.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 57c | 207.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 61c | 178.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 172.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159b…20efbacked No | 8c | 170.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 67c | 167.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 160.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 18c | 124.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 31c | 119.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 108.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 108.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 103.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 96.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 96.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 67c | 82.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 77.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 75.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…f872backed No | 34c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 62c | 73.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 28c | 70.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 38c | 65.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 61.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…6e0dbacked Yes | 52c | 61.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 55c | 59.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 29c | 57.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 56.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 48.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 71c | 43.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 38c | 36.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 35.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 31.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 28.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…0088backed No | 40c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 22.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 68c | 20.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…439fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 71c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 80c | 19.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…408dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.