Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7813099ad8a76960b3abf712ab35cc65ebc30ab9bd5b3bd33078318032c26f84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 896.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 41c | 495.84$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.48 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 65c | 402.83$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…d7b4backed Yes | 22c | 210.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 161.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 42c | 135.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 97.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 94.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 84.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 64c | 82.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 38c | 80.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 78.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 74.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 62.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 34c | 59.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 58.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 69c | 57.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 45.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed Yes | 37c | 42.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 61c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac2b…e724backed No | 65c | 28.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 47c | 25.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes | 45c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.