Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x784a9d253bbb0d881b416efdf7b79d9b710db7b8b85503bd8ad16dfbc57ac2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,894$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 77c | 1,328$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.39 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 993.27$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 623.14$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 17c | 477.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 77c | 272.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 206.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 65c | 133.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 87.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 67c | 36.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.