Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc56f2a0574274a752039fd83e9848750979b8df00e533ab492f5b07e94d4481b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 3,563$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.03 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 718.16$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.01 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 57c | 652.87$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 41c | 381.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.67 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 328.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 320.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 310.12$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 76c | 203.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 48c | 201.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 223 | 69.1%154 W · 69 L | +30.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Over | 49c | 195.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 193.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 873 | 54.6%477 W · 396 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 71c | 166.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 91.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 46c | 87.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 79c | 81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 31c | 80.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 19c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 158 | 76.6%121 W · 37 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…1bd0backed Under | 24c | 60.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 30c | 58.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 485 | 45.2%219 W · 266 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 76c | 38.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 393 | 34.6%136 W · 257 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Over | 48c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 56c | 24.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 926 | 46.7%432 W · 494 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.