Europa Conference League · resolved market
HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x785021586650fe9dd424356b340d33eae2e0c895a5402a26ed2335f7bf1b9122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,976 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 943.24$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 70c | 907.17$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 862.89$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 70c | 819.56$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 33c | 745.34$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.55 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 407.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 10c | 335$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 10c | 334.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…43b4backed Over | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Under | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 65c | 61.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 48.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 55c | 43.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 72c | 29.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 71c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 73c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 55c | 21.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5this page
- HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)HNK Rijeka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.