Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786dea2f046107f8d90538c6b9e7437d5ca47f7eb7e0d3fa28fef22d11ad3369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 28c | 1,514$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.22 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 2c | 940.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 688.23$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 571.55$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 523.91$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 450.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 280.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 249.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 242.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 204.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 56c | 192.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 175.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 169.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 159.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 16c | 151.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 135.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 130.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 109.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 104.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 103.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…3301backed No | 63c | 101.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 95.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 40c | 95.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 94.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 79.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 50c | 70.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 68.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 22c | 62.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 61c | 58.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 57.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 56.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 53c | 55.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 39c | 52.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 51c | 52.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 52.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 39c | 41.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 39c | 38.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 38.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 51c | 36.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 51c | 32.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 32.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 45c | 31.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 51c | 31.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…48c4backed No | 54c | 29.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 49c | 28.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 50c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 52c | 25.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked No | 61c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 51c | 21.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 51c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 19.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 66c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.