TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,153$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.072554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6c…82cfbacked No43c1,012$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes51c866.47$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.8142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c731.48$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No19c616.75$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No10c427.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5234319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c396.56$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No5c387.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9527841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes41c346.38$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.511,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No12c306.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6745162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No35c235.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5274926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes42c225.07$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.381,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf94…bbf1backed No14c208.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No27c207.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No10c196.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No20c178.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.411,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c151.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c140.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.162,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No19c137.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.351,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked No69c121.93$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6710757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes61c121.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.714,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes39c107.37$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4221142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked No60c98.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3920866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No27c97.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.224,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…13f3backed No14c96.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.211833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No12c95.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed Yes74c94.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.921942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c83.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa768…0971backed Yes78c82.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No20c81.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4216740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c78.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes50c75.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.994452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.18643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes36c69.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.129640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No53c65.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c65.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.862,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes40c58.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfab…fe90backed No57c56.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.242060%12 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c53.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes60c51.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.743847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4927732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes79c49.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2626142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No31c47.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes34c47.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.511,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No61c44.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.548461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes67c40.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes75c39.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8830046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes38c38.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2442544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No26c38.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0517945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes42c38.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0214544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes32c37.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.661,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No65c36.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4744659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…c265backed Yes40c35.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.16137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes76c34.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed Yes42c33.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.687233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No58c32.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.057650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No60c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.223349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes38c31.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes38c31.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.282733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes42c30.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7820835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes40c30.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2626434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes42c29.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9814829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…3ee2backed Yes39c29.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.753467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No58c28.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.841,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No59c28.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No60c27.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes75c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes78c25.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.462568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes79c24.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No63c24.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.357153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes46c24.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.158727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c4…293dbacked No53c23.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.423971.8%28 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No49c22.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes77c22.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.297847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No57c22.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.658746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No62c21.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5617855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes75c20.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0361659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No59c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7960236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No66c19.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8915954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed Yes75c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8718549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fd…f525backed No59c17.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241315.4%2 W · 11 L-5.3wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-75.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No60c16.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes74c14.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7513081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.