Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7873c310f6f67862e7a9da24835fc22d8708d87d9be4d77043ff472df3740fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,063$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 70c | 324.27$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 312.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 35c | 275.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 239.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 239.26$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 186.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 171.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 146$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 104.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 97.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 76.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 66.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 57.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 54.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 51.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed No | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 29.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 23.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.