Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Gustavo Heide vs Jay Clarke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a457f350fd18653f3271efe2cbe1fa985420b1cc48b157e23dbbd9d1d1c00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heideof Heide, Clarke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Clarke | 12c | 575$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Clarke | 11c | 392$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Clarke | 9c | 258.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Clarke | 47c | 207.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Heide | 77c | 176.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Heide | 68c | 152.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Clarke | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Clarke | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Heide | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Clarke | 39c | 91.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clarke | 20c | 87.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Heide | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…56c2backed Heide | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…6fd5backed Heide | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…9a69backed Heide | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Clarke | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Gustavo Heide vs Jay Clarkethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Heide vs ClarkeHeide won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.