Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78bccf81a8dc7e0b52719226cae4c19cdf8be77381c44181942ebd5c0a6b55e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,974 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 47c | 506.78$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 448.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 385.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 34c | 368.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 21c | 362.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 309.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 5c | 237.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 236$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 53c | 226.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 54c | 208.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 45c | 208$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 5c | 207.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.12 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed Yes | 10c | 198.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 195$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 194.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 185.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 57c | 182.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 67c | 165.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 37c | 150.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 19c | 132.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 71c | 132.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 41c | 130.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 122.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 12c | 116.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 11c | 114.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 13c | 101.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…48cebacked No | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 64c | 88.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 86.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 76c | 79.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 54c | 75.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 42c | 72.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 57c | 68.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked No | 63c | 47.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 44.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 34.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 26.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 20.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976d…430cbacked No | 80c | 16.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 16.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.