Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd3ccd438d3a2feb1f975d680667d26d52480a8c6b05720e4bb833f7883edb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 34c | 359.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 33c | 316.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 236$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 191.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 178.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 174.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 152.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 146.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 66c | 143.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 138.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 138.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 40c | 122.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 120.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 70c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 63c | 119.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 117.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 36c | 115$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 37c | 112.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 29c | 111.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 16c | 105.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 35c | 104.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 101.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 96.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 37c | 95.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 90.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 85.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed Yes | 31c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 83.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 31c | 81.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 61.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 60.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…48cebacked No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 55.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 54.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 35c | 36.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 38c | 33.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…192fbacked No | 70c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 38c | 31.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 29.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20d…735dbacked No | 70c | 24.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 58c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 69c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.