Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10fc66228eb3d120b169d8f604cfa3c01e03b1a099db6d2a41b77d01a18bd9a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,742 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 410.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 334.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 236$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 32c | 224.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 162.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 152.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 148.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 72c | 147.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 19c | 130.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 24c | 128.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 100.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 93.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 27c | 91.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…2807backed Yes | 33c | 90.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 23c | 87.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 20c | 85.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 81.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…a383backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 57.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 57.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 57.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…277cbacked No | 79c | 50.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 40.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 23.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 79c | 22.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 80c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 78c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.