CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 1: Lynn Vision vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e9d75dc18597b918ceabf1abd4021f3bf89dd48ebac4bb334e6576229ac01e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Lynn Vision, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Astralis | 65c | 5,657$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.96 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Astralis | 69c | 5,633$3,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.18 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed Lynn Vision | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Lynn Vision | 12c | 1,988$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 1,823$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.11 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Lynn Vision | 14c | 1,262$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.66 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Astralis | 66c | 1,206$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.38 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Lynn Vision | 34c | 1,147$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.06 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lynn Vision | 2c | 933$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Lynn Vision | 33c | 863.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.1 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Lynn Vision | 31c | 817.74$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astralis | 76c | 744.95$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Lynn Vision | 17c | 682.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astralis | 65c | 649.99$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…71d6backed Lynn Vision | 35c | 602.03$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 555$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 530$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 507.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Lynn Vision | 18c | 431.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Astralis | 69c | 344.16$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Astralis | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Astralis | 66c | 272.83$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Lynn Vision | 34c | 215$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 65c | 169.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Lynn Vision | 35c | 150.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Astralis | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…957dbacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 96.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Lynn Vision | 35c | 47.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed Astralis | 67c | 35.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…49e3backed Lynn Vision | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Astralis | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.