World Politics · resolved market
Court blocks Biden executive order on immigration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ee89ec023f670b64b2b72a1e59183b54196fae85bf724645d517b95acb254f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 16c | 3,930$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.98 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 40c | 553.7$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 60c | 375$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 73c | 363.75$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…738abacked Yes | 59c | 292.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b1…7c6ebacked No | 41c | 290$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 62c | 271.01$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +441.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 65c | 267.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955d…cab0backed Yes | 62c | 73.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 39c | 71.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7f…6e9bbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 65c | 61.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…761cbacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…83a3backed Yes | 47c | 37.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.