Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Providence Friars vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fb615c4b3983b77eb14d8712f492edc5a7827a27a37c9f675fa7faa1d64f35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Providence Friarsof Providence Friars, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Providence Friars | 64c | 2,859$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.69 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 16c | 1,922$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.03 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 32c | 1,702$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.3 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 31c | 1,647$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Providence Friars | 64c | 1,356$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Providence Friars | 59c | 906$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 18c | 766.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 36c | 729$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.6 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Providence Friars | 76c | 703.45$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 21c | 554.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 21c | 167.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Providence Friars | 64c | 147.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 106.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 41c | 96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Providence Friars | 57c | 90.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 41c | 88.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Providence Friars | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Providence Friars | 54c | 52.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 37c | 50.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Providence Friars | 65c | 38.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…6200backed Providence Friars | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Providence Friars | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Providence Friars | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Providence Friars vs. Penn State Nittany Lionsthis page
- Spread: Providence Friars (-4.5)Providence Friars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.