Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790add3a84c1b9104da0fe295019ccbe94734bce143b4466a70f4779936c611a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Carballes Baena, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Carballes Baena | 37c | 39,025$14,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,450.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Rinderknech | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rinderknech | 65c | 15,000$9,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Rinderknech | 63c | 11,454$7,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,237.81 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Carballes Baena | 26c | 9,929$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.82 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Carballes Baena | 18c | 5,579$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.28 | 581 | 39.9%232 W · 349 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Carballes Baena | 39c | 5,251$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.05 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Rinderknech | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rinderknech | 66c | 2,872$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.06 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rinderknech | 61c | 2,673$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.31 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Rinderknech | 77c | 1,954$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.06 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,130.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Rinderknech | 62c | 1,290$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.01 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Carballes Baena | 28c | 1,224$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.93 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Carballes Baena | 35c | 1,051$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.24 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rinderknech | 70c | 1,003$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.87 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Rinderknech | 62c | 922.91$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.71 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rinderknech | 63c | 900.01$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Carballes Baena | 23c | 868.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech | 69c | 753.76$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Rinderknech | 65c | 716.56$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.13 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rinderknech | 63c | 625$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Carballes Baena | 27c | 546$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Rinderknech | 66c | 456.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Rinderknech | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Carballes Baena | 35c | 383.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Carballes Baena | 23c | 342.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Carballes Baena | 30c | 332.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Rinderknech | 65c | 320.18$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Carballes Baena | 39c | 256.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Carballes Baena | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carballes Baena | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Rinderknech | 66c | 230$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Carballes Baena | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Carballes Baena | 45c | 189.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Carballes Baena | 36c | 176$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 158 | 31%49 W · 109 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Carballes Baena | 33c | 170.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Rinderknech | 63c | 167$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rinderknech | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rinderknech | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Rinderknech | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Carballes Baena | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Carballes Baena | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rinderknech | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Rinderknech | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Carballes Baena | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Rinderknech | 64c | 99.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Rinderknech | 73c | 98.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Carballes Baena | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Rinderknech | 72c | 77.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Carballes Baena | 26c | 71.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Carballes Baena | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…8543backed Rinderknech | 78c | 64.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Carballes Baena | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rinderknech | 68c | 48.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Carballes Baena | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Rinderknech | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Carballes Baena | 35c | 36.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked Rinderknech | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Rinderknech | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.