Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790bacb97f4f789caa90ab7d84aa79988508986b9cf7f90f2f3f8695c86fe31c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.54 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 3,456$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.79 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Over | 52c | 1,228$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.45 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 32c | 537.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.51 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Under | 49c | 419.44$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 322.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 69c | 289.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 283.61$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 20c | 199.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 48c | 124.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 93.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 28c | 88.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…64f1backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…8ab5backed Over | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 70.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 57.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 28c | 57.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 53c | 39.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 34.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 72c | 33.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 71c | 32.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 52c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 65c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed Under | 49c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7217backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 21.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…e24fbacked Over | 50c | 20.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…b4f8backed Over | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Stoke City FC won
- Spread: Stoke City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Stoke City FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.