Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97be396c163f95a6d01fdc91630643fe91b62f3eb467baf71c5ebee8442950db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,609$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.45 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,837$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.71 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 77c | 1,751$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.97 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 76c | 657.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 543.55$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.34 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 19c | 511.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Over | 41c | 507.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 378.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 314.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 306.82$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…5e13backed Under | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 56c | 265.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 22c | 253.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…2ab7backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…3ce0backed Over | 59c | 168.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…ce05backed Under | 61c | 164.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 134.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 49c | 108.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 35c | 105.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 54c | 97.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 26c | 80.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 31c | 73.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 22c | 65.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.4wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 50.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…a8dbbacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 26c | 42.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 47c | 41.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 68.2%88 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5578…f06cbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 78c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Stoke City FC won
- Spread: Stoke City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Stoke City FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.