Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790e8bc06e408dc698e37fba42e28f8c9f4816257192ce083f1b87454b526d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,237$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 17c | 290.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…df00backed Yes | 21c | 242.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 228$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 218$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 215$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 25c | 160.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 153.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 133.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 129.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 94.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 23c | 93.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 81.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 77.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 21c | 63.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 62.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 59.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 50.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 75c | 46.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 76c | 36.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 74c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 14.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 79c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.