Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82be41bb61a7a7651e8deca5b62eeaa03fdce27aaad1dd7cbf26c5ccaed3ea5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 1c | 2,943$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 69c | 286.07$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 202.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 199.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 190.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 26c | 188.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 181.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 34c | 118.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 66c | 107.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 102.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 102.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 20c | 102.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 87.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 80.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 70.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 69.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 63.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 61.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 44.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 77c | 43.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 36c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 41.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 38.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 68c | 35.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 33.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 71c | 25.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…7d38backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 79c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.