Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791c03ef6b9fe19b98dcad3e7f0aa74815bd2074af2de54df14c85c24fb53239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 62c | 577.94$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.36 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 513.13$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 3c | 500.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 327.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed No | 61c | 293.27$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 289.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 289.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 288.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 70c | 284.67$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 42c | 232.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 192.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 48c | 127.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 123.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 120.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 108.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 104.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 100.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 80c | 96.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 41c | 90.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 63c | 88.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 53c | 84.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 17c | 84.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 80.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 22c | 69.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 68.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 67.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 29c | 64.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 64.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 64.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 34c | 60.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 57.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 32c | 50.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 42c | 48.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 25c | 46.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 57c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 43.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 64c | 37.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 41c | 35.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 34c | 33.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 31.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 60c | 28.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 27.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 43c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 53c | 26.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 50c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 25.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 71c | 25.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed No | 62c | 25.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 20.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.