Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe813d58cbe0071a5e99b738f12f5697721aee43b110cb36ba8f60b708a2eb7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 581.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 26c | 433.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 333.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 14c | 316.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 7c | 298.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 285.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 261.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 248.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 38c | 238.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 79c | 175.17$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 130.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 116.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 112.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 27c | 109.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 103.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 98.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 95.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 79.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 72.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 70.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 59.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 41c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 23c | 56.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 43c | 52.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 47.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 45.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 59c | 40.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 77c | 36.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 77c | 35.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 77c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 30.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 62c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 80c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed No | 72c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.