Tennis · resolved market
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tomas Etcheverry: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796206a79b7642d1fb89bbbb564b35e51c810444ca765837ae5c9187eb0734a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 11c | 12,102$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,795.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 8c | 8,131$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,476.07 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 5,669$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,215.3 | 483 | 52.2%252 W · 231 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 2,422$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.6 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 2,342$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.24 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 2,313$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.33 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 2.5 | 16c | 1,798$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.6 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Over 2.5 | 70c | 1,144$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.25 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over 2.5 | 62c | 1,098$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.17 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…4789backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 769.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 738.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.07 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Over 2.5 | 15c | 396.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.58 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over 2.5 | 8c | 382.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.82 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over 2.5 | 15c | 368.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.37 | 3,862 | 34.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L | +92.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Over 2.5 | 69c | 366.48$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…0a8bbacked Over 2.5 | 8c | 307.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 130 | 16.9%22 W · 108 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…8e4ebacked Under 2.5 | 62c | 234.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Under 2.5 | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Over 2.5 | 70c | 188.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 167.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over 2.5 | 8c | 155.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 336 | 61.3%206 W · 130 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…f3e8backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 129.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Over 2.5 | 80c | 127.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 122.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 118.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over 2.5 | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 95.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Over 2.5 | 20c | 95.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 81.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over 2.5 | 74c | 79.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 2.5 | 55c | 38.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 37.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…bbfdbacked Over 2.5 | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over 2.5 | 60c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 30.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Over 2.5 | 75c | 29.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tomas Etcheverry: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas EtcheverryCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs EtcheverryAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5)Etcheverry won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.