Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01301b0b72e01e1830fbbae8c024f7f85a63fa8eee318bce934a88c709536150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Etcheverryof Alcaraz, Etcheverry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Etcheverry | 30c | 5,724$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.5 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Alcaraz | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.99 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Etcheverry | 18c | 1,512$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.09 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Etcheverry | 32c | 1,350$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.26 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…3092backed Alcaraz | 73c | 1,349$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Alcaraz | 50c | 973.98$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.94 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Etcheverry | 67c | 727.63$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Etcheverry | 17c | 598.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Etcheverry | 16c | 481.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.15 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…0ae4backed Alcaraz | 55c | 408.8$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Alcaraz | 50c | 288.92$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Alcaraz | 60c | 252.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Alcaraz | 57c | 229.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Etcheverry | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Etcheverry | 24c | 205$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Etcheverry | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Etcheverry | 17c | 184.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Alcaraz | 60c | 177.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Alcaraz | 61c | 172.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Etcheverry | 20c | 165.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Etcheverry | 22c | 165$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Etcheverry | 22c | 160.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Alcaraz | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…3b43backed Etcheverry | 47c | 124.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 175 | 49.7%87 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Etcheverry | 46c | 122.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Etcheverry | 46c | 122.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Etcheverry | 19c | 115.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Etcheverry | 17c | 114.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Etcheverry | 37c | 103.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Etcheverry | 48c | 102.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…3a02backed Alcaraz | 25c | 99.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Etcheverry | 21c | 76.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Alcaraz | 42c | 74.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…5067backed Etcheverry | 20c | 71.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Etcheverry | 24c | 60.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Etcheverry | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe673…b3d9backed Alcaraz | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Etcheverry | 71c | 33.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Alcaraz | 57c | 32.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…da00backed Etcheverry | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Etcheverry | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tomas Etcheverry: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas EtcheverryCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs EtcheverryAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.