MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79631051af01c20a2c1f7e87883d070d8d10cb6deb39edc85044503c1c0d851b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63a5…8e33backed Under | 52c | 93,724$48,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,454.08 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 47,366$23,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,361.19 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 48c | 17,809$8,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,260.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 15,689$7,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,149.74 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 9,590$4,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,919.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 4,729$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 3,978$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.43 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 2,524$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.78 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 2,217$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 2,000$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,959$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 1,358$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.07 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 54c | 972.1$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.77 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 666.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 477.6$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.58 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Under | 43c | 418.82$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 362.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 49c | 326.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.61 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 52c | 292.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 40c | 281.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.6 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 209.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 52c | 208.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Over | 58c | 208.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 49c | 184.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 180.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 45c | 178.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 50c | 127.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 48c | 105.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 53c | 91.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 88.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 50c | 60.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Under | 49c | 59.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…a613backed Over | 50c | 49.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 50c | 48.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…433bbacked Over | 46c | 43.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 52c | 42.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…3970backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 48c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 50c | 39.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 39.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Over | 50c | 38.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 50c | 37.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 36.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 52c | 36.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 50c | 34.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 52c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd11…bf1dbacked Over | 42c | 25.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Under | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 171 | 59.1%101 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 62c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 52c | 19.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 73c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.