TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof New York Mets, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked New York Mets48c28,134$13,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,629.7641149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed San Francisco Giants52c27,194$14,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,140.6755053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2e…1519backed New York Mets59c20,761$12,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,566.881070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed San Francisco Giants1c9,782$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.981,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed New York Mets49c8,403$4,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,321.3711040.9%45 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants40c8,047$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.348,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked New York Mets49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.9955053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed San Francisco Giants50c7,900$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,948.831,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked New York Mets61c6,799$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.3665050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets79c5,302$4,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.072,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants52c4,482$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.8272648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed San Francisco Giants56c3,979$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.0951756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked San Francisco Giants48c3,848$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.4121656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed San Francisco Giants0c3,255$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked San Francisco Giants51c3,029$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.591,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed New York Mets49c2,968$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.455648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked San Francisco Giants48c2,514$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.381,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed San Francisco Giants50c2,135$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.3367849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed San Francisco Giants52c2,036$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.5316547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed San Francisco Giants50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9701,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked San Francisco Giants24c1,805$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.1515840.5%64 W · 94 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked San Francisco Giants50c1,746$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87314156%79 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed New York Mets52c1,646$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.971,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked San Francisco Giants22c1,505$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.159219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed San Francisco Giants16c1,307$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0678146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets56c1,229$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.549,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked San Francisco Giants50c1,170$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.831,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x181f…6800backed New York Mets49c1,028$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Giants50c1,011$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.291,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets49c1,000$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5096,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed San Francisco Giants41c962.8$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.7596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked New York Mets75c853.51$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.834164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed New York Mets48c766.58$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.6224040.8%98 W · 142 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets57c761.55$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.354,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed San Francisco Giants46c748.95$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5222548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed San Francisco Giants8c744.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.761,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed New York Mets68c628.29$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.184163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed San Francisco Giants22c600.26$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.26513.8%9 W · 56 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed San Francisco Giants42c593.65$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6225349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e8…5169backed New York Mets49c590.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.417262.5%45 W · 27 L+10.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed San Francisco Giants42c582.86$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9839351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked New York Mets50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506764.2%43 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked San Francisco Giants24c499.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8960941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed San Francisco Giants51c475.78$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.655345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked San Francisco Giants22c433.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3218239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets65c405$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.985,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed San Francisco Giants41c399.42$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.767051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf879…820ebacked New York Mets51c380.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.516347.6%30 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets50c362.5$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1832,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked New York Mets78c360.52$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.999254.3%50 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants23c321.91$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked San Francisco Giants42c321.41$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4924348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked San Francisco Giants38c311.63$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.014463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed San Francisco Giants51c304.5$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.366551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed New York Mets47c295.48$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.571,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed San Francisco Giants25c282.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4555541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked New York Mets49c234.66$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6733852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed San Francisco Giants42c231.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.517950.6%40 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants29c222.93$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.056,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked New York Mets50c206.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3118157.5%104 W · 77 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…1e0cbacked New York Mets77c205.04$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.21776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb1a…5cddbacked San Francisco Giants40c203.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.122157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked New York Mets50c203.05$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.013,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed San Francisco Giants50c202.77$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3892046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed San Francisco Giants49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.948847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed San Francisco Giants51c194.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9913351.9%69 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets44c193.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.241,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c31…ebdbbacked New York Mets50c193.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3417448.9%85 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed San Francisco Giants18c190.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1730844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03c…b352backed New York Mets54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.833935.9%14 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked New York Mets51c178$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2219248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed San Francisco Giants52c171.9$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3991749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New York Mets54c156.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.111,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed San Francisco Giants49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2417050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked New York Mets50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7535446%163 W · 191 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed New York Mets58c137.61$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1728646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked San Francisco Giants28c133.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7915243.4%66 W · 86 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed San Francisco Giants22c132.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.661,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed San Francisco Giants32c126.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed New York Mets50c119.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5188549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11bf…770dbacked San Francisco Giants52c104.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.393751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed New York Mets70c103.61$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0870735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed New York Mets49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed New York Mets50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5040753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…92f2backed San Francisco Giants19c99.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed New York Mets49c98.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.214060%24 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fb…5623backed San Francisco Giants50c96.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.461560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked New York Mets51c95.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9418754%101 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed New York Mets53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0911352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed San Francisco Giants52c87.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.453348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed New York Mets62c87.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4613343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked San Francisco Giants51c81.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7458943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141d…7ea0backed New York Mets48c81.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.311070%7 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed San Francisco Giants52c80.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.622,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed New York Mets50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4015757.3%90 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed San Francisco Giants43c77.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1578052.2%407 W · 373 L+22.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc18a…b3dbbacked San Francisco Giants21c76.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.982347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed New York Mets44c72.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5950860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed New York Mets50c72.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.91,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.