Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796d28706d9e33aac7c199b711102b5bbc830e41709973ad55ade3f6b19fe322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 10,000$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.13 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 61c | 8,551$5,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,334.7 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…d6e4backed Yes | 77c | 1,477$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 23c | 1,246$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.26 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 720.73$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.66 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 60c | 512.15$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 395.14$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…c370backed Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 355.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 79c | 163.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 61c | 158.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 140.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 49c | 128.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…f80fbacked Yes | 78c | 115.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 32c | 88.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Yes | 77c | 85.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 75c | 55.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…af84backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…848fbacked Yes | 80c | 31.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2483backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.