TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 10km Sprint at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,255 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb113…8bc6backed No79c756.51$598 inWon+$158.82955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed Yes20c699.47$138 inLost-$137.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No78c444$346 inWon+$97.687627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…7e88backed Yes22c425.14$94 inLost-$94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No79c299.82$237 inWon+$62.963158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b70…ed51backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No80c232.16$186 inWon+$46.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa551…9626backed Yes20c139.16$28 inLost-$27.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes21c122.48$26 inLost-$25.72520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes18c110$20 inLost-$19.83525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9775…8746backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes22c84$18 inLost-$18.282839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No78c74$58 inWon+$16.282766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4274…3d39backed Yes64c31.23$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No77c20.87$16 inWon+$4.95242.3%22 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.