TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Erik Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 10km Sprint at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,757$24 inLost-$24.062448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes17c1,093$187 inLost-$186.514746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No74c409.63$304 inWon+$105.383158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No79c200$158 inWon+$42540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e28…e5efbacked Yes26c200$51 inLost-$51933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes24c177.73$43 inLost-$42.661526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No76c173.07$131 inWon+$42.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…cec7backed Yes15c122$18 inLost-$18.340%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No75c111.33$83 inWon+$28.062766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa551…9626backed Yes28c106.17$30 inLost-$30.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes11c105.35$11 inLost-$11.486123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes25c101.8$25 inLost-$253525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes60c100.24$61 inLost-$60.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes22c100$22 inLost-$21.823324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No71c100$71 inWon+$291866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed Yes21c100$21 inLost-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972c…c2e2backed Yes31c97.02$30 inLost-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes16c93.1$15 inLost-$14.92347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No78c86.35$67 inWon+$195242.3%22 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes24c62$15 inLost-$15.072839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6497…4b86backed Yes22c50$11 inLost-$1160%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No75c46$35 inWon+$11.52420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes23c43.1$10 inLost-$10128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No66c15.4$10 inWon+$5.182147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.