Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79abdc427d76b47939519ce6889ca04032972505b224d4dfc901fdd656de2bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 8c | 4,368$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.07 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 16c | 787.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 763.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 74c | 676$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 381.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 20c | 375.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 375$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 190.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 21c | 188$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 23c | 135.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…f6c0backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 82.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 27c | 70.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 28c | 52.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 25c | 41.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…9038backed No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 78c | 33.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 78c | 33.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 80c | 22.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 75c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 75c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.