Fifa International · resolved market
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c35808f1f2ed72eb06ba95a91545467d79bbd09382121778e841f88365bbed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 0c | 60,280$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 13,932$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.15 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,999$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 35c | 4,497$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.99 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Yes | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 62c | 426$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…f0d8backed Yes | 53c | 241.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…7bb3backed Yes | 58c | 205.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 234 | 40.2%94 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 23c | 191.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 73c | 172.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 139.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…19c0backed Yes | 60c | 133.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Yes | 38c | 133.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 73c | 109.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1187…20c4backed Yes | 71c | 96.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 38c | 83.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…0736backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 315 | 43.5%137 W · 178 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 71.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…e294backed Yes | 40c | 61.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 48.2%145 W · 156 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b5a2backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 68c | 51.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 48c | 51.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…8a59backed Yes | 30c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked No | 76c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 332 | 45.5%151 W · 181 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime?this page
- France leading at halftime?Yes won
- Northern Ireland leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.