Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c3e701c2b846fb53fcff945b92a38c17551679b6465f8abbdbac88c38c0cd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed PARIVISION | 57c | 379.8$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed OG | 44c | 247.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed OG | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed PARIVISION | 57c | 185.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…811ebacked OG | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed OG | 36c | 166.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION | 62c | 153.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed PARIVISION | 56c | 113.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG | 22c | 108.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…539abacked OG | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked OG | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked OG | 46c | 95.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed PARIVISION | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION | 52c | 94.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked OG | 45c | 90.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked OG | 14c | 74.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked OG | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed OG | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed PARIVISION | 58c | 54.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed OG | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…2ea7backed OG | 46c | 45.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8799…0bc0backed OG | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION | 74c | 39.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION | 71c | 37.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed PARIVISION | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked OG | 45c | 30.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed PARIVISION | 55c | 30.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed OG | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe50…b05cbacked PARIVISION | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed PARIVISION | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked OG | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…6633backed PARIVISION | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed PARIVISION | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.