Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79cefac8c68c40e1f15a6bd1675b3ad7a6b5378521b279ff16cd6740ef8e3c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahoma State Cowboysof TCU Horned Frogs, Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 54c | 2,338$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.66 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 1,172$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.62 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 1,101$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 48c | 697.54$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…99b4backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 413.56$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 50c | 270.6$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 201$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 191.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 49c | 96.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed TCU Horned Frogs | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 43c | 39.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 35.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)this page
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs won
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 161.5Under won
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 162.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.