Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d7992edd4615c3a5fb18b253c7df86f5d4053fefca2350cc3a236c04681d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 71c | 1,496$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.4 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 33c | 1,147$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.61 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 27c | 449.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 71c | 426.79$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 56c | 302.52$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 6c | 261.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 22c | 209.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…acc2backed No | 46c | 192.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 46c | 190.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…3ea0backed No | 46c | 189.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 46c | 189.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…a4ccbacked No | 46c | 188.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…f99dbacked No | 46c | 188.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…0d38backed No | 46c | 187.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…6179backed No | 46c | 187.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked No | 46c | 187.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…fd48backed No | 46c | 186.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…e8a9backed No | 46c | 186.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…f8c7backed No | 46c | 186.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…97cdbacked No | 46c | 186.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…21b8backed No | 46c | 185.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2447backed No | 46c | 185.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed No | 46c | 185.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…347dbacked No | 46c | 183.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…2f5dbacked No | 46c | 183.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked No | 46c | 182.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…fea6backed No | 46c | 182.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1cb4backed No | 46c | 181.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3057backed No | 46c | 180.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…ecf2backed No | 46c | 180.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…eb09backed No | 46c | 179.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed No | 46c | 179.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…6782backed No | 46c | 179.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…fd0bbacked No | 46c | 178.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae6…b2ccbacked No | 46c | 178.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…0579backed No | 46c | 178.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked No | 46c | 176.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 58c | 96.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 51c | 54.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 58c | 43.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b01ebacked Yes | 59c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in April?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.