Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc013d2dcbce17ad259c4046a3ace42767cd2b3e638e06370c460d3234e310a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 71c | 1,634$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.58 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 25c | 1,041$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.04 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…182dbacked Yes | 41c | 547.14$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 33c | 364.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…db66backed Yes | 17c | 319.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 51c | 302.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 58c | 193.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 58c | 148.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9025…d2ccbacked No | 77c | 143.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 74c | 105.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Yes | 17c | 97.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1e…f060backed Yes | 31c | 91.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 42c | 67.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 79c | 54.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 54.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 49.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 38c | 48.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 76c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…f5dbbacked Yes | 46c | 41.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…5ea4backed Yes | 49c | 39.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked No | 70c | 37.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…dee0backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 36c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…af4bbacked Yes | 65c | 22.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in April?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in April?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in April?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.