Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79e68a674f7f9c2e2534924ee5946bfd94a7efe4cc55720aec8098c04fb828f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 69c | 18,230$12,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,645.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 7,985$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 31c | 6,552$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 30c | 1,618$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 42c | 1,231$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.3 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 610.57$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 478.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.59 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 470.56$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 45c | 432.18$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 47c | 377.18$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.11 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 43c | 365.32$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 285.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 190.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 31c | 127.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 110.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 99.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 72.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 43c | 61.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked No | 58c | 60.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 29c | 57.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked No | 60c | 49.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 48.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 35.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Yes | 42c | 25.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 67c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.