Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806ec88f849680c0febe1068c014e73cd40b78ad58e9400d97f44cef56cbc1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,998$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.82 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,226$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 77c | 784.66$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.68 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 766.81$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 609.28$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 73c | 546.01$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 479.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 369.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 13c | 364.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 26c | 361.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 29c | 331.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 74c | 326.25$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 73c | 314.35$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 74c | 308.05$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 14c | 294.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 73c | 289.75$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 74c | 237.4$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 74c | 237.4$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 189.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 27c | 177.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 133.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 74c | 133.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 11c | 95.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 75c | 84.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 74c | 77.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 74c | 75.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 74c | 72.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 74c | 72.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 74c | 60.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 55.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Yes | 27c | 53.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 52.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 50.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…f962backed Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 27c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 74c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked No | 73c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 75c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 73c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 80c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.